Præsidentvalget 2020

Electoral College er en konstruktion, der har rødder i forfatningen fra 1789.
Efter valget 3. november mødes denne forsamling udpeget i de enkelte stater.
Antallet af delegerede fra hver stat afhænger, i store træk, af folketallet i følge seneste
folketælling - dog mindt 3. Partitilhørsforholdet spiller ingen rolle, eftersom alle skal
stemme for den kandiat, der har vundet valget i deres respektive stat.
Der er i 2020 578 delegerede, så for at blive præsident skal man have 270.
Efter konstateringen er kollegiets døgnflueliv forbi, og deres opgørelse sendes til godkendelse på Capitol Hill.

Vedr. nedenstående tabel:
"Måling" er den nyeste, jeg er bekendt med, og "Hvis i dag" er fra den samme kilde:
"Tendens" relaterer udelukkende til kategoriseringen herover, senest opdateret 10. august .
De 7 forskellige forskellige "tendenser" defineres i amerikanske målinger således:

"Tossup": no advantage
"Lean": slight advantage
"Likely" :significant, but surmountable, advantage
"Safe": near-certain chance of victory

Stat Eletoral votes Trump - Hillary 2016 i procent *) Måling Hvis i dag: B - T Tendens
Alabama 9 62,08 - 34,36 - Safe R
Alaska 3 51,48 - 36,55  - Likely R
Arizona 11 48,67 - 45,13 Via  Real Clear Politic 47 - 45 Tossup
Arkansas 6 60,57 - 33,65 Safe R
Californien 55 31,62 - 61,71 Safe D
Colorado 9 43,25 - 48,16 Via Real Clear Politic 55 - 45 Likely D
Conneticut 7 40,93 - 54,57 - Safe D
Delaware 3 41,72 - 53,09 - Safe D
D.C. 3 4,07 - 90,48 - Safe D
Florida 29 49,02 - 47,82 Via Real Clear Politic 50 - 45 Tossup
Georgia 16 50,77 - 45,64 Via Real Clear Politic 47 - 46 Tossup
Hawai 3 38,76 - 62,22 - Safe D
Idaho 6 59,26 - 27,49 - Lean R
Illinois 20 38,76 - 55,83 - Safe D
Indiana 11 56,82 - 37,91 - Likely R
Iova 18 51,15 - 41,74 Via Real Clear Politic 47 - 45 Tossup
Kansas 6 56,65 - 36,05 - Safe R
Kentuchy 8 62,52 - 32,68 - 38-59 Safe R
Louisiana 8 58,09 - 38,45 - Safe R
Maine 4 2016 2D+1R - 59-48 Likely D
Maryland 11 32,81 - 60,33 - Safe D
Massachuttes 13 32,81 - 60,01 Via Real Clear Politic 62 - 30 Safe D
Michigan **) 16 47,50 - 47,27 Via Real Clear Politic 49 - 44 Lean D
Minnesota 10 44,82 - 46,44 Fox News Pooll 51 - 38 Lean D
Mississipi 6 57,94 - 40,11 - Safe R
Montana 3 56,17 - 38,14 - Likely R
Nebraska 3 2016 R:3 - Likely R
Nevada 5 45,98 - 47,50 Via Real Clear Politic 48 - 44 Lean D
New Hampshire 4 46,61 - 46,98 Via Real Clear Politic 51 - 41 Lean D
New Jersey 14 41,65 - 55,41 - Safe D
New Mexico 5 40,26 - 48,20 - Likely D
New York 29 36,52 - 59,01 - Safe D
North Carolina 15 49,83 - 46,17 Via Real Clear Politic 46 - 47 Tossup
North Dakota 3 62,96 - 27,23 - Safe R
Ohio 16 51,69  - 43,56 Via Real Clear Politic 47 - 45 Tossup
Oklahoma 7 65,33 - 28,93 - Safe R
Oregon 7 39,09 - 50,97 - Safe D
Pennsylvania 20 57,50 - 57,25   Aug.  CBS You Gov 52 - 44 Lean D
Rhode Island 4 38,90 - 54,41 - Safe D
South Carolina 9 54,91 - 40, 67 - 45-51 Likely R
South Dakota 3 61,53 - 31,74 - Safe R
Tennessee 11 62,72 - 34,72 - Safe R
Texas 38 52,21 - 43,24 Via Real Clear Politic 44 - 46 Lean R
Utah 6 45,54 - 27,47 - Likely R
Vermont 3 30,27 - 56,68 - Safe D
Virginia 13 44,41 - 49,73 Via Real Clear Politic 50 - 39 Likely D
Washington 12 38,83 - 52,54 - Safe D
West Virginia 5 68,50 - 26,43 - Safe R
Wisconsin **) 10 47,22 - 46,45  Aug.  CBS You Gov 48 - 42 Lean D
Wyoming 3 67,40 - 21,63 - Safe R
-

https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/

 

Texas
The real battle for Texas is in the suburbs of places like Houston, Austin, and Dallas. Three counties in the Dallas metro area are worth watching this year: Denton, Collin, and Tarrant. To win Texas, Tarrant seems like a must-win county for Biden, and he’ll need to keep the other two within a few points.

What does Trump need to do to keep the state in his column? He needs to reverse his slide with college educated voters, particularly white women. Unlike in the Midwest, non-college educated whites are not a swing group in Texas -- a large majority of them will support Trump. If Trump continues to slide with college educated white voters, the Midwest won’t be his pressing concern -- it will be Texas. Fresh polling from CBS shows Trump leading Biden 48%-46% in Texas. CBS gives Trump a 53%-40% lead with white college graduates, but that’s a clear drop from the 62%-31% margin he earned with them in 2016.

Texas has 38 electoral votes, second only to California, a number that’s expected to grow by three after this year’s census. Trump has virtually no path to reelection without Texas, and, given the larger trends, future Republican nominees will have to work increasingly hard to keep it in the red column.

NYT 23.9.